A Guide to the Oscar Best Picture Nominees for Everyone Else

It’s no secret that I like movies . . . love movies . . . love movies a lot. For nearly every week of the year, you can find me in the dark of a cinema, be it with a summer blockbuster, a silly comedy, a sappy romance, or an artsy indie flick. Really, I don’t discriminate much in what I’ll see, as long as it’s good.

But there’s no time of year that I love more for movies than what is commonly known as awards season. From September to January, studios roll out their films that drip with innovation, artistry, significance, or all the above. And like a coach choosing his winning team, Hollywood execs aim these films to win awards, hoping to up their profit margins. (Yes, at the end of the day, it’s still all about money—but that’s a discussion for another time.)

Having said that, I am aware that the vast majority of people often feel a disconnect from awards season films. What do they care for those obscure, high-brow titles that sometimes they’ve never even heard of? How could they have seen them when they only ran at that one theater downtown where they show all the “weird” movies? Or worse, why see movies about what those “liberal elites” want them to believe and think?

And I get it. Film is not everyone’s thing. Some people go to the movies solely for entertainment, not for an artistic experience, and there’s nothing wrong with that. (All I ask is you all admit there’s also nothing wrong with me not getting the big deal about watching a bunch of guys throw a ball around.)

Still, if I can stand to watch the best football teams play in the Super Bowl, everyone else can add at least one Oscar-nominated film to their to-watch list.

I’m a firm believer that new experiences are what make us better people. So, I challenge those of you who don’t venture beyond the latest summer popcorn flick to step out of your cinematic comfort zone for a moment.

To help, I have created this list, ranking the Best Picture nominees for this year from Least to Most Accessible to Mass Audiences. My gauge here is my friends and family who don’t examine films and simply want to see a good, agreeable movie (i.e. my mom).

 

9. Phantom Thread

Who Will Like It: Fans of the director, Paul Thomas Anderson, costume design nerds, and auteur cinema aficionados.

Who Won’t Like It: Pretty much everyone else.

Look, I love artsy, unconventional films more than most people. But even I struggled to get through this one. If your biggest gripe about Oscar films is that they’re slow and boring, run as far as you can from this one.

 

8. Call Me By Your Name

Who Will Like It: Anyone wanting to see the rare creature that is superior LGBTQ cinema; the beauty of Northern Italy will delight globetrotters too.

Who Won’t Like It: Obviously if you bristle at the sight of two dudes kissing or getting it on, you’re going to struggle here. The age difference might bother you too; it did for me a bit.

This is a gorgeous film, and easily the most noteworthy gay romance since Brokeback Mountain. But even if the gayness doesn’t bother you, Call Me By Your Name is a risque art film, through and through. Even if it were a hypothetical straight couple in the same story (impossible as that would be), this film still might be too much for Joe Popcorn.

 

7. Lady Bird

Who Will Like It: Daughters who have a complicated relationship with their moms, and anyone who can sympathize with that.

Who Won’t Like It: Those annoyed by “mumblecore”—low budget films where teens and young adults talk a lot and not much happens in the plot. Many feel Lady Bird is the best mumblecore ever made.

Lady Bird sports awesome performances from Lucas Hedges, Laurie Metcalf, and, of course, Saoirse Ronan. It also, for a while, was the best reviewed movie in Rotten Tomatoes history. Still, funny as it is, you have to enjoy a dialogue-heavy, slice-of-ordinary-life movie to like this one.

 

6. The Shape of Water

Who Will Like It: If a darker, more adult, and more science-fictiony retelling of Beauty and the Beast sounds like your thing, do not miss it.

Who Won’t Like It: Make no mistake, Shape of Water is the weirdest entry this year. It’s simple: mute lady falls in love with amphibious fish-man. Does that sound too out there for you? That’s the least bizarre part about it, so skip it if it does.

I cannot tell you how much it pains me to put this one so low on the list, as Shape of Water is my number one movie of the year. It’s gorgeous, emotive, and a far more relevant LGBTQ film than Call Me By Your Name (yes I said it #sorrynotsorry). But I have to be honest: the subject matter is just going to be too weird for most (not to mention it’s the most sexually explicit of the list . . . yeah, it goes there).

 

5. Get Out

Who Will Like It: Even being the latest in the burgeoning indie-horror-flick-with-something-to-say-about-society category (which is what the best horror has always been anyway), Get Out will still appeal to anyone who enjoys a good scary movie . . .

Who Won’t Like It: . . . unless you’re the type who believes that films should never have any political or social commentary whatsoever . . . or you think Black Lives Matter is a hate group . . . please don’t ever admit to me if it’s the latter.

I struggled whether to put this one at number four or five. But I figured a horror film holds less wide appeal than what I did place at number four. Still, if the violence or scares don’t turn you off (it wins goriest award on this list) you should add Get Out to your to-watch list.

 

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who Will Like It: This is all around a great movie with socially relevant ideas that everyone can relate to. Honestly, everyone could use a dose of this film in our troubled and divisive world.

Who Won’t Like It: Without giving too much away, Three Billboards isn’t going to satisfy audiences who have to have Hollywood endings.

Don’t let its spot on the list fool you: Three Billboards is not your run-of-the-mill drama. Still, it earns number four by being laugh-out-loud funny with a hero audiences will instantly like and root for. Be advised though that it earns the roughest language award of the list (only I, Tonya could have beaten it).

 

At this point we’re moving on to the only three nominated films that are not rated R. And yes, I did this on purpose. Let’s face it, broad mass appeal includes appealing to a variety of age groups.

 

3. Darkest Hour

Who Will Like It: Watching Gary Oldman become Winston Churchill is the draw here (hence all his awards). Your history buffs might also enjoy yet another take on the trusty subject of World War II. (Then again, they may hate its fudging of facts.)

Who Won’t Like It: Gary Oldman’s near-perfect recreation of Churchill’s mumbling might frustrate some. And since it’s about the conversations that go on in strategy rooms, it’s not exactly your typical war movie.

Every year the Academy picks at least one film they would have nominated fifty years ago. Darkest Hour is that pick this year. It has everything you think of when you think “Oscar movie”: career performance from veteran actor, WWII, “based on real events”, relatively safe choices, WWII. True to form, Darkest Hour (note there’s no “the” in the title) is not the most exciting film. Be sure you’re well-rested.

 

2. The Post

Who Will Like It: Do you like films about journalism like All The President’s Men? Do you want to see one woman take on a group of men who thinks she’s incapable in the best “get it girl” moment since Wonder Woman? Fancy political intrigue and think Nixon is the worst thing that ever happened to this country? If any of those apply, check it out.

Who Won’t Like It: I’d like to say that three of Hollywood’s most respected names didn’t come together to make a statement film about our current president. That it’s not film about feminism. That it’s not a film about the vilifying of the free press, nor what a transparent government should look like . . . but that’s exactly what it is. Your politics may hate them for it.

You can almost feel how badly Spielberg and crew wanted to make this film. I’d be curious to know how long this script has been around and if it was only picked up because of current events. Regardless of how relevant it is, The Post is a solid film that only suffers from not living up to the potential of those involved . . . and it ain’t no Spotlight.

 

1. Dunkirk

Who Will Like It: The idea here is that most everyone will, in my humble opinion, find something to enjoy about this one.

Who Won’t Like It: The one caveat is that if you’re not crazy about movies where people don’t talk a whole lot, where there is no true main character, or with Nolan’s creative story structure, you might still find it tedious.

Up until I saw Shape of Water, this film was number one on my list and is still number two. I think many have forgotten in the ensuing months how incredible a film Dunkirk is. Nolan uses his non-linear plot to thrilling effect. The cinematography is spectacular. It’s the best sound design and sound editing I’ve heard since Fury Road. Most of all, it possesses a universal expression of war and survival that most anyone can relate to, even if they’ve never seen a battlefield. And I pity you if you missed this one in IMAX.

 

Now for some honorable mentions of films that were clearly gunning for Oscars and are worth checking out:

Mudbound: I am stunned and frankly upset Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour were nominated for Best Picture over this. Be advised this film has a tough scene to watch (I was ugly-crying).

I, Tonya: This could have had Phantom Thread‘s place, too. Watch out for the 100+ f-bombs though.

The Big Sick: Best rom-com I’ve seen in years.

Molly’s Game: For the Sorkin fans out there; perhaps his most “fun” project ever.

Coco: Okay, if you haven’t seen this one yet, drop everything and see it now. Best Pixar film since Inside Out.

The Florida Project: Not for everyone, but beautiful in its own way.

 

So there you have it. And remember, many of these are coming back to theaters for limited “Oscar marathons” so you may still catch them if you missed out the first time.

See you at the movies!

The Oscars According to Blake

For the first time in my 25 years of life I have managed to watch every single Best Picture nominated film before the Oscars (barely, I might add. Had Nebraska not shown up in Redbox this week it probably wouldn’t have happened).

So,  for the first time ever, I feel like I can make some honest judgement calls and predictions as to how it will go this year. We’ll start with the technical awards, go to acting awards, then finish off with Best Director and Best Picture (yes, I will be skipping some categories that I can’t really speculate on like foreign films and shorts).

Without any further ado, here is The Oscars According to Blake.

Sound Mixing/Sound Editing
I put these two together, a. because I’m a little clueless as to what does and does not make good sound mixing or editing in a film, and b. because I’m thinking most of the technical awards are all going to the same film. While I could imagine Captain Phillips or maybe even The Hobbit taking one of these, I’m 90% sure it will go to the obvious choice.

And the winner is: Gravity

Visual Effects
The problem here is that the Oscars like to clump the awards around one or two films. Rarely, if ever, do you see a lot of different films winning one or two awards a piece (though that was the case last year, which was just a weird year).  Again, this one could potentially end up with The Hobbit (Benedict Cumberbatch’s motion captured performance as Smaug is mind-blowing) but the statue seems slated for, again, the obvious pick.

And the winner is:  Gravity

Costuming
American Hustle is the definition of a dark horse. No award is in the bag for it (well, except one, which we’ll get to), but it has the potential of stealing one or two away from the obvious choices, including this one. Despite that possibility, I think the clear runaway here shouldn’t have too much to worry about (I’m so glad this film is at least going to win something).

And the winner is: The Great Gatsby

Makeup and Hairstyling
I cannot express how angry I am at this category this year. No nod for Christian Bale’s comb-over in American Hustle, but we’re actually going to nominate a Jackass movie? Oh well, at least it makes the winner obvious. Thank you Jared Leto.

And the winner is: Dallas Buyer’s Club

Production Design
This is maybe the first of this list that isn’t quite so obvious. My pick is based solely on how the awards have played out so far (with a bit of fan-boy bias), but this award is another that American Hustle could run away with, and I think there’s even a chance Her could take this one (which would be nice, seeing as how such an excellent film is going to be really short-changed otherwise).

And the winner is: The Great Gatsby

Cinematography
There’s really no point in debating this one. Biggest shock of the night for me will be if this film doesn’t win.

And the winner is: Gravity

Film Editing
This award has always confused me so maybe someone out there can help. I mean, how does one know how well the editing was unless you see the original cut? The Wolf of Wall Street may have been way too long as a finished product, but what if the original cut was twice as long? So, based on my general feel of film’s pacing, the winner is again what is shaping up to be the star of the evening, but I guess any one of them (including our dark horse again) could steal it away.

And the winner is: Gravity (though don’t quote me on that one)

Music – Original Song
This one comes down to two choices: the more popular song that everyone on Earth is covering and Mormon moms are debating over, or the song that pays homage to the late Mandela. I”m pretty sure it’s the former (Can’t wait to see Idina perform it live).

And the winner is: Let It Go – Frozen

Music – Original Score
I am shocked that the score from 12 Years a Slave wasn’t nominated. Hans Zimmer pulled back his normal foghorn audacity and created a simple, violin-solo-driven  score that is par in my opinion to Williams’s work in Schindler’s List. Without that, watch out for Her and Philomena, but I think this one will go to the other film of the night that will be largely ignored.

And the winner is: Saving Mr. Banks

Writing – Adapted Screenplay
My favorite script of the bunch is Philomena, and I want it to win so bad. If the film wins anything it will most likely be this one, but I think Wolf of Wall Street has a better shot of pulling it away from the likely winner.

And the winner is: 12 Years a Slave

Writing – Original Screenplay
Her deserves this award. Period. I think most people out there would agree with me, so hopefully the Academy does as well. But, once again, you’ve got the dark horse of the night in the mix, and Dallas Buyer’s Club might surprise you. But if we’re talking which script was the most creative, innovative, honest, real, and relevant to the world we live in, it’s not a hard choice. Plus this one might be the only award this film gets, which is a crying shame.

And the winner is: Her

Animated Feature Film
Most might say that the mouse has this one in the bag, but don’t forget that the Academy likes to honor veteran artists and give career awards, particularly to those who clearly are stepping away from the business. That’s why I won’t be shocked if Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises ends up winning.
But it probably won’t.

And the winner is: Frozen

Actress in a Supporting Role
Remember how I said that American Hustle probably has one award in the bag? The dark horse of the dark horse for this category is 12 Years’s Lupita Nyong’o (and it wouldn’t shock me) but I think Hollywood’s brightest star is getting another award for her collection. It appears she and David Russell can do no wrong together.

And the winner is: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Actor in a Supporting Role
I remember a while back when Paul Giamatti won every Best Supporting Actor award imaginable for his turn in Cinderella Man. Something very similar is happening this year, and it doesn’t hurt that it’s coming for a politically-charged film and role. I wish the first-timer Barkhad Abdi could be recognized for his wowing performance in Captain Phillips, but it’s not going to happen. This is the one award I would bet money on, though I doubt anyone would challenge me.

And the winner is: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Actress in a Leading Role
This is the biggest question mark for me this year, as I can see reasoning for almost every candidate. While the likely winner is in the same boat as Leto, having already won every other Best Actress award, arguments could be made for Sandra Bullock, who gave the performance of her career in Gravity, or for Amy Adams, who’s part of the dark horse gang and did win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy. Then there’s Judi Dench, who the Academy might honor with a career award for Philomena, seeing as how her acting days are numbered with her failing eyesight. And of course, we have to throw in a nod to the reigning queen of awards, Meryl Streep, for her latest in August: Osage County. What makes this even more difficult to decide is the recent bad press Woody Allen has had, which could take away the award from the likely winner. If the Academy is going to surprise us this year, it’s in this category.

And the winner is: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine???

Actor in a Leading Role
I think Bruce Dern’s nomination was simply Hollywood’s way of forgiving him for killing John Wayne all those years ago (a move which even the actor admits is what destroyed his mainstream career). I honestly think his spot should have gone to Tom Hanks, who gave his best performance since Apollo 13 in Captain Phillips. So with him out that leaves four. This award is the only one that I don’t think American Hustle could steal. Bale was good, but not as good as the other three. Perhaps it is finally Leo’s turn, but I think the Academy still wants to see more from him, and without Scorsese giving him tailored roles. That leaves Chiwetel Ejiofor, who gave a heartbreaking and powerful performance, and the likely choice, who  I think the Academy is going to recognize for the incredible 180 he has pulled off in the last two years of his career. Still, watch out for DiCaprio and Ejiofor. I’m still amazed Hanks wasn’t nominated.

And the winner is: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Best Director
Both this one and Best Picture come down to two films. While the Academy rarely splits the two awards between two films, I could potentially see it happening for the second year in a row (it happened with Life of Pi and Argo). Having said that, I don’t think Steve McQueen can win unless he also wins Best Picture. My choice and the likely winner should walk away with this one no matter what. He’s had it coming for a long time.

And the winner is: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Best Picture
Last year was an interesting year for the Academy Awards in that there was no clear runaway winner. This year is almost the exact opposite. I think any one of these films, with the possible exception of one, would have beat out most of the contenders from last year – they’re all runaway winners. Let’s take a look at each of them. I’ve ordered them from least likely to win to most likely to win.

Nebraska
This is the one that confuses me. It was a good film, but I feel other films this year were better – Saving Mr. Banks, Fruitvale Station, and Frances Ha, just to name three.

Philomena
I adored this film . . . it’s easily one of my favorites of the year (see my list at the end of this post). Unfortunately, it just didn’t quite have the momentum of the others.

Captain Phillips
This is the first example of one that, in any other given year, would have had a better shot, and most certainly would have beat out Argo last year. I’d say it’s lack of recognition is criminal, because it is a damn good movie, but I’d be lying if I said that the others weren’t better films. Doesn’t help that this one caught some bad press for it’s source material.

The Wolf of Wall Street
My first draft of this post had this one in a three-way tie with the next two, but then I remembered that the Academy has it out for Scorsese for reasons I can’t understand; which is why I think DiCaprio needs to work with other directors if he wants the gold statue. Ironically, this satirical romp of debauchery and irreverence is probably the second most culturally important film of the year after 12 Years, being one that people need to see, even if they don’t want to or feel sick to their stomach while viewing it. Excellent film, but not going to win.

Her/Dallas Buyer’s Club
I’m not sure which of these would be more likely to win if the top three weren’t around – that would be interesting to see. While Her boasts the best script of the two, Dallas Buyer’s Club has the better acting chops. Both have a high level of cultural significance, and both are quite powerful in a more subdued way then the two top contenders. These are excellent films, and it’s  shame that neither is going to go home with much.

American Hustle
I’ve said it twelve times, I’ll say it again: this is your dark horse this year. While it’s still really unlikely, maybe, just maybe this one could surprise everyone.

And the winner is: Gravity/12 Years a Slave

I’ve gone back and forth a million times on this. I honestly have no idea. The two are such completely different films, yet they both pack a powerful punch that stunned audiences which is probably why they’re at the top of the food chain. Right now I’m leaning towards Gravity, but I fear the Academy may decide to get political as they are wont to do. Saying which of these is a better film is like saying which is better between Mac and Windows . . . all depends on who you ask and what speaks to people in films. Me personally, I believe Gravity is the better film, but I can see the argument for 12 Years. Ninety percent of the reason I’ll be tuning in on Sunday is because this one positively baffles me.

So there you have it – my Oscar predictions. Here’s a few other lists made up of the Best Picture Nominees.

My Judgement of Best to Worst:
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Her/Philomena (tie)
Dallas Buyer’s Club
The Wolf of Wall Street/Captain Phillips (tie)
Nebraska

My Most Favorite to Least Favorite (the crowd-pleasers):
Gravity
Philomena
Her
American Hustle
Captain Phillips/The Wolf of Wall Street/Dallas Buyer’s Club (mood decision)
12 Years a Slave (great film but not one I can watch every day)
Nebraska (as you can tell, I’m not to thrilled about this one, though it was good)

My Thoughts on What You Should/Need to See, Most Important to Least
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street/Her (both biting criticisms of our current society, but make sure you can handle the graphic content of Wolf)
Philomena (Powerful in it’s simplicity)
Captain Phillips (Unfortunately most fans of this one missed its indictment of American imperialism)
Dallas Buyer’s Club
Gravity (inspirational and moving, no doubt, but not as powerful a message as the others)
American Hustle (it’s a fun look at corruption, but it doesn’t really say a whole lot about it)
Nebraska (Why was this nominated again?)

– Blake L.