The Oscars According to Blake

For the first time in my 25 years of life I have managed to watch every single Best Picture nominated film before the Oscars (barely, I might add. Had Nebraska not shown up in Redbox this week it probably wouldn’t have happened).

So,  for the first time ever, I feel like I can make some honest judgement calls and predictions as to how it will go this year. We’ll start with the technical awards, go to acting awards, then finish off with Best Director and Best Picture (yes, I will be skipping some categories that I can’t really speculate on like foreign films and shorts).

Without any further ado, here is The Oscars According to Blake.

Sound Mixing/Sound Editing
I put these two together, a. because I’m a little clueless as to what does and does not make good sound mixing or editing in a film, and b. because I’m thinking most of the technical awards are all going to the same film. While I could imagine Captain Phillips or maybe even The Hobbit taking one of these, I’m 90% sure it will go to the obvious choice.

And the winner is: Gravity

Visual Effects
The problem here is that the Oscars like to clump the awards around one or two films. Rarely, if ever, do you see a lot of different films winning one or two awards a piece (though that was the case last year, which was just a weird year).  Again, this one could potentially end up with The Hobbit (Benedict Cumberbatch’s motion captured performance as Smaug is mind-blowing) but the statue seems slated for, again, the obvious pick.

And the winner is:  Gravity

Costuming
American Hustle is the definition of a dark horse. No award is in the bag for it (well, except one, which we’ll get to), but it has the potential of stealing one or two away from the obvious choices, including this one. Despite that possibility, I think the clear runaway here shouldn’t have too much to worry about (I’m so glad this film is at least going to win something).

And the winner is: The Great Gatsby

Makeup and Hairstyling
I cannot express how angry I am at this category this year. No nod for Christian Bale’s comb-over in American Hustle, but we’re actually going to nominate a Jackass movie? Oh well, at least it makes the winner obvious. Thank you Jared Leto.

And the winner is: Dallas Buyer’s Club

Production Design
This is maybe the first of this list that isn’t quite so obvious. My pick is based solely on how the awards have played out so far (with a bit of fan-boy bias), but this award is another that American Hustle could run away with, and I think there’s even a chance Her could take this one (which would be nice, seeing as how such an excellent film is going to be really short-changed otherwise).

And the winner is: The Great Gatsby

Cinematography
There’s really no point in debating this one. Biggest shock of the night for me will be if this film doesn’t win.

And the winner is: Gravity

Film Editing
This award has always confused me so maybe someone out there can help. I mean, how does one know how well the editing was unless you see the original cut? The Wolf of Wall Street may have been way too long as a finished product, but what if the original cut was twice as long? So, based on my general feel of film’s pacing, the winner is again what is shaping up to be the star of the evening, but I guess any one of them (including our dark horse again) could steal it away.

And the winner is: Gravity (though don’t quote me on that one)

Music – Original Song
This one comes down to two choices: the more popular song that everyone on Earth is covering and Mormon moms are debating over, or the song that pays homage to the late Mandela. I”m pretty sure it’s the former (Can’t wait to see Idina perform it live).

And the winner is: Let It Go – Frozen

Music – Original Score
I am shocked that the score from 12 Years a Slave wasn’t nominated. Hans Zimmer pulled back his normal foghorn audacity and created a simple, violin-solo-driven  score that is par in my opinion to Williams’s work in Schindler’s List. Without that, watch out for Her and Philomena, but I think this one will go to the other film of the night that will be largely ignored.

And the winner is: Saving Mr. Banks

Writing – Adapted Screenplay
My favorite script of the bunch is Philomena, and I want it to win so bad. If the film wins anything it will most likely be this one, but I think Wolf of Wall Street has a better shot of pulling it away from the likely winner.

And the winner is: 12 Years a Slave

Writing – Original Screenplay
Her deserves this award. Period. I think most people out there would agree with me, so hopefully the Academy does as well. But, once again, you’ve got the dark horse of the night in the mix, and Dallas Buyer’s Club might surprise you. But if we’re talking which script was the most creative, innovative, honest, real, and relevant to the world we live in, it’s not a hard choice. Plus this one might be the only award this film gets, which is a crying shame.

And the winner is: Her

Animated Feature Film
Most might say that the mouse has this one in the bag, but don’t forget that the Academy likes to honor veteran artists and give career awards, particularly to those who clearly are stepping away from the business. That’s why I won’t be shocked if Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises ends up winning.
But it probably won’t.

And the winner is: Frozen

Actress in a Supporting Role
Remember how I said that American Hustle probably has one award in the bag? The dark horse of the dark horse for this category is 12 Years’s Lupita Nyong’o (and it wouldn’t shock me) but I think Hollywood’s brightest star is getting another award for her collection. It appears she and David Russell can do no wrong together.

And the winner is: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Actor in a Supporting Role
I remember a while back when Paul Giamatti won every Best Supporting Actor award imaginable for his turn in Cinderella Man. Something very similar is happening this year, and it doesn’t hurt that it’s coming for a politically-charged film and role. I wish the first-timer Barkhad Abdi could be recognized for his wowing performance in Captain Phillips, but it’s not going to happen. This is the one award I would bet money on, though I doubt anyone would challenge me.

And the winner is: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Actress in a Leading Role
This is the biggest question mark for me this year, as I can see reasoning for almost every candidate. While the likely winner is in the same boat as Leto, having already won every other Best Actress award, arguments could be made for Sandra Bullock, who gave the performance of her career in Gravity, or for Amy Adams, who’s part of the dark horse gang and did win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy. Then there’s Judi Dench, who the Academy might honor with a career award for Philomena, seeing as how her acting days are numbered with her failing eyesight. And of course, we have to throw in a nod to the reigning queen of awards, Meryl Streep, for her latest in August: Osage County. What makes this even more difficult to decide is the recent bad press Woody Allen has had, which could take away the award from the likely winner. If the Academy is going to surprise us this year, it’s in this category.

And the winner is: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine???

Actor in a Leading Role
I think Bruce Dern’s nomination was simply Hollywood’s way of forgiving him for killing John Wayne all those years ago (a move which even the actor admits is what destroyed his mainstream career). I honestly think his spot should have gone to Tom Hanks, who gave his best performance since Apollo 13 in Captain Phillips. So with him out that leaves four. This award is the only one that I don’t think American Hustle could steal. Bale was good, but not as good as the other three. Perhaps it is finally Leo’s turn, but I think the Academy still wants to see more from him, and without Scorsese giving him tailored roles. That leaves Chiwetel Ejiofor, who gave a heartbreaking and powerful performance, and the likely choice, who  I think the Academy is going to recognize for the incredible 180 he has pulled off in the last two years of his career. Still, watch out for DiCaprio and Ejiofor. I’m still amazed Hanks wasn’t nominated.

And the winner is: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Best Director
Both this one and Best Picture come down to two films. While the Academy rarely splits the two awards between two films, I could potentially see it happening for the second year in a row (it happened with Life of Pi and Argo). Having said that, I don’t think Steve McQueen can win unless he also wins Best Picture. My choice and the likely winner should walk away with this one no matter what. He’s had it coming for a long time.

And the winner is: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Best Picture
Last year was an interesting year for the Academy Awards in that there was no clear runaway winner. This year is almost the exact opposite. I think any one of these films, with the possible exception of one, would have beat out most of the contenders from last year – they’re all runaway winners. Let’s take a look at each of them. I’ve ordered them from least likely to win to most likely to win.

Nebraska
This is the one that confuses me. It was a good film, but I feel other films this year were better – Saving Mr. Banks, Fruitvale Station, and Frances Ha, just to name three.

Philomena
I adored this film . . . it’s easily one of my favorites of the year (see my list at the end of this post). Unfortunately, it just didn’t quite have the momentum of the others.

Captain Phillips
This is the first example of one that, in any other given year, would have had a better shot, and most certainly would have beat out Argo last year. I’d say it’s lack of recognition is criminal, because it is a damn good movie, but I’d be lying if I said that the others weren’t better films. Doesn’t help that this one caught some bad press for it’s source material.

The Wolf of Wall Street
My first draft of this post had this one in a three-way tie with the next two, but then I remembered that the Academy has it out for Scorsese for reasons I can’t understand; which is why I think DiCaprio needs to work with other directors if he wants the gold statue. Ironically, this satirical romp of debauchery and irreverence is probably the second most culturally important film of the year after 12 Years, being one that people need to see, even if they don’t want to or feel sick to their stomach while viewing it. Excellent film, but not going to win.

Her/Dallas Buyer’s Club
I’m not sure which of these would be more likely to win if the top three weren’t around – that would be interesting to see. While Her boasts the best script of the two, Dallas Buyer’s Club has the better acting chops. Both have a high level of cultural significance, and both are quite powerful in a more subdued way then the two top contenders. These are excellent films, and it’s  shame that neither is going to go home with much.

American Hustle
I’ve said it twelve times, I’ll say it again: this is your dark horse this year. While it’s still really unlikely, maybe, just maybe this one could surprise everyone.

And the winner is: Gravity/12 Years a Slave

I’ve gone back and forth a million times on this. I honestly have no idea. The two are such completely different films, yet they both pack a powerful punch that stunned audiences which is probably why they’re at the top of the food chain. Right now I’m leaning towards Gravity, but I fear the Academy may decide to get political as they are wont to do. Saying which of these is a better film is like saying which is better between Mac and Windows . . . all depends on who you ask and what speaks to people in films. Me personally, I believe Gravity is the better film, but I can see the argument for 12 Years. Ninety percent of the reason I’ll be tuning in on Sunday is because this one positively baffles me.

So there you have it – my Oscar predictions. Here’s a few other lists made up of the Best Picture Nominees.

My Judgement of Best to Worst:
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Her/Philomena (tie)
Dallas Buyer’s Club
The Wolf of Wall Street/Captain Phillips (tie)
Nebraska

My Most Favorite to Least Favorite (the crowd-pleasers):
Gravity
Philomena
Her
American Hustle
Captain Phillips/The Wolf of Wall Street/Dallas Buyer’s Club (mood decision)
12 Years a Slave (great film but not one I can watch every day)
Nebraska (as you can tell, I’m not to thrilled about this one, though it was good)

My Thoughts on What You Should/Need to See, Most Important to Least
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street/Her (both biting criticisms of our current society, but make sure you can handle the graphic content of Wolf)
Philomena (Powerful in it’s simplicity)
Captain Phillips (Unfortunately most fans of this one missed its indictment of American imperialism)
Dallas Buyer’s Club
Gravity (inspirational and moving, no doubt, but not as powerful a message as the others)
American Hustle (it’s a fun look at corruption, but it doesn’t really say a whole lot about it)
Nebraska (Why was this nominated again?)

– Blake L.

Five Favs: Chick Flicks

This is the first in what I hope will be something of a series for this blog. I had intended to start a long time ago with children’s films, but I could never decide on my favorite five. So, instead, I decided to begin with a genre more in the spirit of the season.

Ah, the chick flick: the staple of toe-painting, towel-on-head gatherings in girl’s dorms, the housewife’s companion on a night with husband and kids out of the house, and the ultimate statement of sacrificial love to a girl from her  hyper-macho tank of a boyfriend to whom a good movie is Will Ferrell running half-naked from an explosion.

Then again, chick flicks themselves aren’t exactly what one would call high art . . . at least not always. This judgement of course begs the question: what is a chick flick? I feel I could give a pretty good definition given that I grew up with a mom and two older sisters who each had a bit of a romantic, whimsical, and idealistic streak to them . . . i.e. I saw a lot of chick flicks growing up . . . a lot.

But while I could spend this entire post just trying to arrive at a definition of a chick flick, I think it’s suffice to say that chick flicks are a form of cinematic comfort food. They don’t really challenge anyone’s intellectual, moral, or emotional palate, and like the fleece pajamas and snack foods they are accompanied with, they’re familiar, comfortable, and safe. If I were to hazard a guess as to their appeal to women, I would suppose them as the pinnacle of escapism: in a world full of cynical, bitter, pessimistic, and flat-out mean people, many women (and many men) like to play pretend with the on-screen actors and imagine that the world isn’t quite so awful. Men also crave this escapism, but to them it usually takes the form of a Bond film. This definition, however, is precisely why you won’t see more high-minded or provoking fare, like 500 Days of Summer or Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind: these are films that are challenging, and that do make us question what love and relationships are. For this list, we’re going to stick with the simple, the innocent, and the benign.

But even though chick flicks are harmless in theory, plenty of them out there are as bad for your cine-diet as any mindless guy movie; hence, where this blog post comes in. Many of you couples might find yourselves attempting to find the perfect film to snuggle on the couch with, and I hope that with this post, I can at the very least help some of you out there avoid some landmines: both artistically and for guys who don’t want to feel like they’ll have to go kill a moose with their bare hands after watching them.

So, without any further rambling and in no particular order, here are my five favs for chick flicks. (Warning, spoilers ahead)

Breakfast at Tiffany’s

I will always be amazed that this film was even made back in its day, and even more so that it was received so well by 1960s audiences when I consider that the film is essentially about two prostitutes. Audrey Hepburn’s iconic turn as the vapid-but-sincere socialite Holly Golightly is, I believe, a huge piece of the cinematic base for nearly every chick-flick character for Julia Roberts, Meg Ryan, and Sandra Bullock and others. Though this one does take some veers off into the dark, there’s no question how it will all end, and watching it happen from the moment when Paul (Fred, darling) uses Holly’s phone up to what some call the most romantic on-screen kiss is, in a word, charming.

My Best Friend’s Wedding

What I will always love about this one is it’s bravery: what looked like it might be just another run-of-the-mill, all-hail-Queen-Julia notch in her “I’m America’s Sweetheart” belt took a startling veer off into left field . . . and let everyone’s favorite actress not get what she wanted. In the process, the film exposed some of the more disturbing elements of chick flicks. If you think about it objectively, chick flicks are often about emotionally unhinged people committing questionable and at times horrid acts: Sleepless in Seattle is essentially about a stalker, The Wedding Planner about a bitter perfectionist who is romantically unethical and unprofessional with one of her clients, and (the worst, in my opinion) Something Borrowed about people who refer to each other as “friends” even though they have affairs with each other’s significant others . . . but it’s all in good fun, right? My Best Friend’s Wedding has the guts to use what was then Hollywood’s most likable actress and show the things these people do aren’t cute, they aren’t funny . . .they’re the works of a “dangerous, criminal person” who does “bad things to honest people.”

When Harry Met Sally/Sleepless in Seattle

I went back and forth on these two before finally deciding to cheat and use both of them. Really, though, I don’t think it’s entirely cheating, as these two to me are just two sides of the same cinematic coin. There’s stuff to both love and hate in both: Meg Ryan gives a better performance as Sally than as Annie, but I think Tom Hanks makes a better romantic lead. Sleepless in Seattle  does have the aforementioned stalker element, but the answer to the major dramatic question of When Harry Met Sally makes me cringe: that men and women can’t just be friends with each other. By the same token, Sleepless in Seattle‘s ultimate point is a hopeful one: that it can “happen twice.” Well, at least I think so. One thing I love about Sleepless  is its somewhat ambiguous ending: we don’t really know if they end up together—the point is the hope of finding someone. Plus I love the fact that Hanks and Ryan have so much chemistry . . . even though they are almost never on screen together. Then again, When Harry Met Sally has much stronger writing (and I can’t stand that kid). So, in the end, put the two together and you may just have the perfect chick flick.

Return to Me

This movie is like getting a big hug from one of your closest friends: it’s warm, it’s sweet, it’s innocent, and it’s endearing. Once you can get past the unbelievable (and kind of creepy) premise, you can’t help but be delighted by this fairy tale set to Dean Martin and Frank Sinatra music. Minnie Driver and David Duchovny are as sweet and wholesome as mom’s apple pie. Plus, it’s pretty much worth it solely for the supporting cast, including a gang of sweet old guys lead by Carol O’Connor (his last film) and Bonnie Hunt and Jim Belushi as one of the more honest portrayals of a domestic couple I’ve seen. This one didn’t make much of a splash when it first came out, but if you can check your cynicism at the door, it ‘s worth checking out. (Sorry, this is actually one of my least favorite scenes, but I couldn’t find a better one.)

Ghost – “Pick of the List”

Crank up The Righteous Brothers and break out the pottery wheel. I once saw a comedic promo for this film which stated “If there is a single romantic bone in your body, you cannot miss this, the ultimate chick flick.” Which is ironic, considering that there’s so much in this film that isn’t  romance: there’s mystery, there’s comedy (Whoopi’s best performance, no contest), and there’s even a bit of a spookiness. Even still, people will always remember Ghost as a romance at heart, forever recalling that infamous pottery scene and the penny sliding up the door (which also features the most beautiful on-screen weeping ever courtesy of Demi Moore). The cast is great, the writing is superb, and the direction is solid. Pretty good for a film that most felt would flop—it went through about twenty actors and actresses who didn’t want to be involved with a forecasted failure. Of the five films here, I think this one would have the widest appeal and thus earns my highest recommendation for this list. Try as I could, I couldn’t think of way to work in this word, so I’ll just say it: Ditto. (Oh, and here’s that clip . . . seriously, at 1:39 those aren’t tears . . . they’re little jewels falling from her unblinking eyes.)

Join me in March for my next installment of Five Favs: Oscar Best Picture Nominees

—Blake L.