Tag Archives: oscar predicitons

My Top Three Films of 2015

Full disclosure: this list was originally supposed to be a top ten list. I sat down with a list of all the films released in 2015, picked out the ones I had seen that I ascribed a certain level of quality to, and then began the task of ferreting out which were my ten favorites of the year.

Except I couldn’t pick ten. I got to about eight, and then I felt myself stuck with many worthy contenders left to choose from, but couldn’t decide out of all of them which were the two that outshone the others.

So I decided to instead go with a list of five. Out of the eight I picked, I had four that immediately went to the top of the list . . . except I couldn’t pick the fifth out of the remaining four.

Now, I could have just gone with four, but three is such a clean number. So I dropped the fourth that was probably most influenced by my own personal experiences and less by its actual quality (we’ll get to it in a sec) and finalized my top three.

I’m actually happy to have had this conundrum. Why? Because it shows that 2015 was an excellent year for film. So many of the films this year were of an exceptional quality, and what’s more, they were all quite likeable. This year is the first where I can honestly say that I actually enjoyed all of the Oscar nominees for Best Picture and would happily watch any of them again.

I think I mostly have The Force Awakens to thank for this: being faced with the inevitable box office juggernaut that film would be (and has proven to be), I think most producers and studio execs chose this year to focus less on box office draw and more on films that may not be raking in the crowds, but are of a high-quality nonetheless.

So, first up, here’s all the films I considered that didn’t make my top eight, but were still excellent films that I’d recommend to most cinephiles:

Black Mass—Johnny’s best role in years.

Bridge of Spies—great, but I wanted so much more out of a Spielberg/Cohen Bros collab.

Brooklyn—in a word, charming.

Carol—Cate Blanchett is a goddess . . .

The Danish Girl—and Eddie Redmayne is a god (need to get those two in a film together).

The End of the Tour—Jason Segel can act! Who knew?

Ex Machina—best “actual” sci-fi of the year, featuring Poe Dameron and General Hux!

It Follows— best horror about horror since Scream.

Me and Earl and the Dying Girl—the thinking man’s Fault in Our Stars.

Room—powerful, but brutal. Probably the “heaviest” film I saw this year.

Sicario—underrated. Has one of the most well-paced scenes I’ve seen in a long time.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens—issues I have with it aside, thank the Lord for Rey.

Steve Jobs—Aaron Sorkin really only does one thing, but he does it so well.

Straight Outta Compton—gangsta rap makes more sense to me now. I rest my case.

Trainwreck—Schumer and Apatow punked their fans and made a chick flicksuccess.

Trumbo—I hope Bryan Cranston gets more work like this . . . he’s far too talented for less.

The Walk—an odd but visually stunning heist film/tribute to the Twin Towers.


 

And now for the four films that were in my top eight but I couldn’t decide between for the fifth spot in my never-to-be top five:

The Big Short—this movie pissed me off, which I guess was the point, but it also used some clever and out-of-the-box methods to explain the financial crisis. This film is one that I think every person in America should watch, but I think few who actually need to will.

Creed—I was genuinely shocked how much I liked this movie. I don’t like sports movies generally, I really don’t like Sylvester Stallone, and I haven’t ever seen a Rocky movie. But, there’s a sincerity and positivity here that you can’t help but love, and Michael B. Jordan.

The Martian—
I think Matt Damon stands the best chance to steal Leo’s Oscar. What I think I enjoyed the most about this one was its ability to inject quite a bit of honest humor into a dire situation, which was refreshing for this kind of story.

The Revenant—For the love of all that is good and holy, just give the man his Oscar already! What more must he do? Actually get attacked by a bear? Beyond that, this film sports some of the best nature cinematography I’ve seen in a long time.


 

And now for the film that is technically part of my top four, but I let slide for aesthetics:

Love and Mercy—I had been waiting for this film for such a long time. Not just when I knew it was being produced, but from the moment I first learned of Brian Wilson’s struggle with mental illness and the abusive relationship he had with his “therapist” Eugene Landy. I always felt it was such an important story, the kind that isn’t told nearly enough. And while the film was solid, with an innovative double casting of Wilson with John Cusack (some of his best work) and Paul Dano (always great), excellent supporting performances by Elizabeth Banks and Paul Giamatti, and amazing recreations of the Pet Sounds studio sessions, I have to admit that much of my enjoyment of this film comes from my fandom of The Beach Boys and the personal notes a story about dangerous therapeutic methods hit for me. Still, I think it’s one of the more underrated films of the year, and I recommend it to anyone who loves music, has dealt with mental illness, or has ever written Brian Wilson off as “crazy.”


 

And now, without further ado, in alphabetical order, my Top Three Films of 2015 . . .

Inside-Out

Inside Out

Undeniably Pixar’s best film since Up (yes, that includes Toy Story 3). I still remember when I saw this film in theaters and being absolutely blown away at how deep and meaningful a children’s film was diving. Moreover, I’ve never seen anything explain so completely yet so simply what is going on in the mind of someone broken by depression, anxiety, stress, insecurity, or just plain growing up. The animation is nothing short of gorgeous, the voice-acting is pitch perfect, and the screenplay is one of the most original ideas Pixar has ever had. Granted, this year has been an emotional one for me, and I did see this less than 48 hours after publicly coming out, so perhaps my perspective is a little skewed, but I truly believe this one will become known as one of Pixar’s greatest triumphs.

mad_max_fury_road_wallpaper_1920x1080_by_sachso74-d8r49ti

Mad Max: Fury Road

Never before in my life has a film more pleasantly surprised me than this one. Actually, joyously stunned and gobsmacked is a better term. Seriously, where in the hell did this come from? Mad Max was supposed to be some lame summer-crowd action film that would maybe have a nice opening weekend and then sputter out. Never, and I mean never, did I expect something like this. From the opening frame until the closing credits, this gem is an unyielding, all-stops-pulled-out, balls-to-the-wall, adrenaline-fueled masterpiece of an action film. I could go on and on about what makes this film so freakin’ amazing: the practical effects, the feminism, the guy with the flame-throwing electric guitar, the cinematography, Charlize Theron, the script, the pacing, my boyfriend Tom Hardy, the weird stilt-creatures, the commentary on blind devotion to religion, “who killed the world?”, the freakin’ guy with the flame-throwing electric guitar, the expert camera work during the chase scenes, “oh, what a lovely day”, those long pole-swingy things . . . oh, and did I mention the freakin’ guy with the FLAME-THROWING ELECTRIC GUITAR??? (Which I recently learned was also a practical effect: that guitar really did do that). Just . . . I don’t know what else to say. This movie kicked a**, and I pity anyone who didn’t see it.

landscape-1438189928-spotlight

Spotlight

There are many types of well-made movies, but two particular categories are the “well-made movie that is very much aware of how well-made it is and can be kind of pretentious about it” and the “well-made, but unassuming movie that isn’t so much interested in impressing  you with how well-made it is but would rather just get back to telling a story.” Understandably, directors almost can’t help showing off, so this latter category is rare but is one of my absolute favorite kind of films. Spotlight is that kind of film. No bells and whistles in the film-making itself, but everything there—the cinematography, the editing, the visuals—is top notch. No stand-out, hand-me-my-Oscar performance from any one actor, but not a weak or phoned-in treatment from any cast member can be found. Nothing in this film is out to impress—all of the elements work to the singular aim of telling an effective story, much like the reporters the film itself is about.

And if I had to guess why, it’s because of the strongest element of this film: the script and the subject matter it handles. When dealing with an issue so powerful and so horrific, any self-awareness or self-promotion feels like exploitative grandstanding. At the same time, never once does the film try to shy away from the reality of what it’s talking about: terms like “abuse” or “misconduct” aren’t used to sugar-coat the dark and sobering nightmare the Boston Globe team uncovered. The film strikes that perfect balance of telling the stark, unadulterated truth without resorting to shock-value or extreme methods to tell that truth. I’m thinking this one might end up your Best Picture of the Year at the Oscars, and for good reason.


So there you have it . . . now on to 2016.

– Blake L.


The Oscars According to Blake

For the first time in my 25 years of life I have managed to watch every single Best Picture nominated film before the Oscars (barely, I might add. Had Nebraska not shown up in Redbox this week it probably wouldn’t have happened).

So,  for the first time ever, I feel like I can make some honest judgement calls and predictions as to how it will go this year. We’ll start with the technical awards, go to acting awards, then finish off with Best Director and Best Picture (yes, I will be skipping some categories that I can’t really speculate on like foreign films and shorts).

Without any further ado, here is The Oscars According to Blake.

Sound Mixing/Sound Editing
I put these two together, a. because I’m a little clueless as to what does and does not make good sound mixing or editing in a film, and b. because I’m thinking most of the technical awards are all going to the same film. While I could imagine Captain Phillips or maybe even The Hobbit taking one of these, I’m 90% sure it will go to the obvious choice.

And the winner is: Gravity

Visual Effects
The problem here is that the Oscars like to clump the awards around one or two films. Rarely, if ever, do you see a lot of different films winning one or two awards a piece (though that was the case last year, which was just a weird year).  Again, this one could potentially end up with The Hobbit (Benedict Cumberbatch’s motion captured performance as Smaug is mind-blowing) but the statue seems slated for, again, the obvious pick.

And the winner is:  Gravity

Costuming
American Hustle is the definition of a dark horse. No award is in the bag for it (well, except one, which we’ll get to), but it has the potential of stealing one or two away from the obvious choices, including this one. Despite that possibility, I think the clear runaway here shouldn’t have too much to worry about (I’m so glad this film is at least going to win something).

And the winner is: The Great Gatsby

Makeup and Hairstyling
I cannot express how angry I am at this category this year. No nod for Christian Bale’s comb-over in American Hustle, but we’re actually going to nominate a Jackass movie? Oh well, at least it makes the winner obvious. Thank you Jared Leto.

And the winner is: Dallas Buyer’s Club

Production Design
This is maybe the first of this list that isn’t quite so obvious. My pick is based solely on how the awards have played out so far (with a bit of fan-boy bias), but this award is another that American Hustle could run away with, and I think there’s even a chance Her could take this one (which would be nice, seeing as how such an excellent film is going to be really short-changed otherwise).

And the winner is: The Great Gatsby

Cinematography
There’s really no point in debating this one. Biggest shock of the night for me will be if this film doesn’t win.

And the winner is: Gravity

Film Editing
This award has always confused me so maybe someone out there can help. I mean, how does one know how well the editing was unless you see the original cut? The Wolf of Wall Street may have been way too long as a finished product, but what if the original cut was twice as long? So, based on my general feel of film’s pacing, the winner is again what is shaping up to be the star of the evening, but I guess any one of them (including our dark horse again) could steal it away.

And the winner is: Gravity (though don’t quote me on that one)

Music – Original Song
This one comes down to two choices: the more popular song that everyone on Earth is covering and Mormon moms are debating over, or the song that pays homage to the late Mandela. I”m pretty sure it’s the former (Can’t wait to see Idina perform it live).

And the winner is: Let It Go – Frozen

Music – Original Score
I am shocked that the score from 12 Years a Slave wasn’t nominated. Hans Zimmer pulled back his normal foghorn audacity and created a simple, violin-solo-driven  score that is par in my opinion to Williams’s work in Schindler’s List. Without that, watch out for Her and Philomena, but I think this one will go to the other film of the night that will be largely ignored.

And the winner is: Saving Mr. Banks

Writing – Adapted Screenplay
My favorite script of the bunch is Philomena, and I want it to win so bad. If the film wins anything it will most likely be this one, but I think Wolf of Wall Street has a better shot of pulling it away from the likely winner.

And the winner is: 12 Years a Slave

Writing – Original Screenplay
Her deserves this award. Period. I think most people out there would agree with me, so hopefully the Academy does as well. But, once again, you’ve got the dark horse of the night in the mix, and Dallas Buyer’s Club might surprise you. But if we’re talking which script was the most creative, innovative, honest, real, and relevant to the world we live in, it’s not a hard choice. Plus this one might be the only award this film gets, which is a crying shame.

And the winner is: Her

Animated Feature Film
Most might say that the mouse has this one in the bag, but don’t forget that the Academy likes to honor veteran artists and give career awards, particularly to those who clearly are stepping away from the business. That’s why I won’t be shocked if Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises ends up winning.
But it probably won’t.

And the winner is: Frozen

Actress in a Supporting Role
Remember how I said that American Hustle probably has one award in the bag? The dark horse of the dark horse for this category is 12 Years’s Lupita Nyong’o (and it wouldn’t shock me) but I think Hollywood’s brightest star is getting another award for her collection. It appears she and David Russell can do no wrong together.

And the winner is: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Actor in a Supporting Role
I remember a while back when Paul Giamatti won every Best Supporting Actor award imaginable for his turn in Cinderella Man. Something very similar is happening this year, and it doesn’t hurt that it’s coming for a politically-charged film and role. I wish the first-timer Barkhad Abdi could be recognized for his wowing performance in Captain Phillips, but it’s not going to happen. This is the one award I would bet money on, though I doubt anyone would challenge me.

And the winner is: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Actress in a Leading Role
This is the biggest question mark for me this year, as I can see reasoning for almost every candidate. While the likely winner is in the same boat as Leto, having already won every other Best Actress award, arguments could be made for Sandra Bullock, who gave the performance of her career in Gravity, or for Amy Adams, who’s part of the dark horse gang and did win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy. Then there’s Judi Dench, who the Academy might honor with a career award for Philomena, seeing as how her acting days are numbered with her failing eyesight. And of course, we have to throw in a nod to the reigning queen of awards, Meryl Streep, for her latest in August: Osage County. What makes this even more difficult to decide is the recent bad press Woody Allen has had, which could take away the award from the likely winner. If the Academy is going to surprise us this year, it’s in this category.

And the winner is: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine???

Actor in a Leading Role
I think Bruce Dern’s nomination was simply Hollywood’s way of forgiving him for killing John Wayne all those years ago (a move which even the actor admits is what destroyed his mainstream career). I honestly think his spot should have gone to Tom Hanks, who gave his best performance since Apollo 13 in Captain Phillips. So with him out that leaves four. This award is the only one that I don’t think American Hustle could steal. Bale was good, but not as good as the other three. Perhaps it is finally Leo’s turn, but I think the Academy still wants to see more from him, and without Scorsese giving him tailored roles. That leaves Chiwetel Ejiofor, who gave a heartbreaking and powerful performance, and the likely choice, who  I think the Academy is going to recognize for the incredible 180 he has pulled off in the last two years of his career. Still, watch out for DiCaprio and Ejiofor. I’m still amazed Hanks wasn’t nominated.

And the winner is: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Best Director
Both this one and Best Picture come down to two films. While the Academy rarely splits the two awards between two films, I could potentially see it happening for the second year in a row (it happened with Life of Pi and Argo). Having said that, I don’t think Steve McQueen can win unless he also wins Best Picture. My choice and the likely winner should walk away with this one no matter what. He’s had it coming for a long time.

And the winner is: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Best Picture
Last year was an interesting year for the Academy Awards in that there was no clear runaway winner. This year is almost the exact opposite. I think any one of these films, with the possible exception of one, would have beat out most of the contenders from last year – they’re all runaway winners. Let’s take a look at each of them. I’ve ordered them from least likely to win to most likely to win.

Nebraska
This is the one that confuses me. It was a good film, but I feel other films this year were better – Saving Mr. Banks, Fruitvale Station, and Frances Ha, just to name three.

Philomena
I adored this film . . . it’s easily one of my favorites of the year (see my list at the end of this post). Unfortunately, it just didn’t quite have the momentum of the others.

Captain Phillips
This is the first example of one that, in any other given year, would have had a better shot, and most certainly would have beat out Argo last year. I’d say it’s lack of recognition is criminal, because it is a damn good movie, but I’d be lying if I said that the others weren’t better films. Doesn’t help that this one caught some bad press for it’s source material.

The Wolf of Wall Street
My first draft of this post had this one in a three-way tie with the next two, but then I remembered that the Academy has it out for Scorsese for reasons I can’t understand; which is why I think DiCaprio needs to work with other directors if he wants the gold statue. Ironically, this satirical romp of debauchery and irreverence is probably the second most culturally important film of the year after 12 Years, being one that people need to see, even if they don’t want to or feel sick to their stomach while viewing it. Excellent film, but not going to win.

Her/Dallas Buyer’s Club
I’m not sure which of these would be more likely to win if the top three weren’t around – that would be interesting to see. While Her boasts the best script of the two, Dallas Buyer’s Club has the better acting chops. Both have a high level of cultural significance, and both are quite powerful in a more subdued way then the two top contenders. These are excellent films, and it’s  shame that neither is going to go home with much.

American Hustle
I’ve said it twelve times, I’ll say it again: this is your dark horse this year. While it’s still really unlikely, maybe, just maybe this one could surprise everyone.

And the winner is: Gravity/12 Years a Slave

I’ve gone back and forth a million times on this. I honestly have no idea. The two are such completely different films, yet they both pack a powerful punch that stunned audiences which is probably why they’re at the top of the food chain. Right now I’m leaning towards Gravity, but I fear the Academy may decide to get political as they are wont to do. Saying which of these is a better film is like saying which is better between Mac and Windows . . . all depends on who you ask and what speaks to people in films. Me personally, I believe Gravity is the better film, but I can see the argument for 12 Years. Ninety percent of the reason I’ll be tuning in on Sunday is because this one positively baffles me.

So there you have it – my Oscar predictions. Here’s a few other lists made up of the Best Picture Nominees.

My Judgement of Best to Worst:
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Her/Philomena
(tie)
Dallas Buyer’s Club
The Wolf of Wall Street/Captain Phillips
(tie)
Nebraska

My Most Favorite to Least Favorite (the crowd-pleasers):
Gravity
Philomena
Her
American Hustle

Captain Phillips/The Wolf of Wall Street/Dallas Buyer’s Club (mood decision)
12 Years a Slave (great film but not one I can watch every day)
Nebraska (as you can tell, I’m not to thrilled about this one, though it was good)

My Thoughts on What You Should/Need to See, Most Important to Least
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street/Her
(both biting criticisms of our current society, but make sure you can handle the graphic content of Wolf)
Philomena (Powerful in it’s simplicity)
Captain Phillips
(Unfortunately most fans of this one missed its indictment of American imperialism)
Dallas Buyer’s Club

Gravity (inspirational and moving, no doubt, but not as powerful a message as the others)
American Hustle (it’s a fun look at corruption, but it doesn’t really say a whole lot about it)
Nebraska (Why was this nominated again?)

– Blake L.