For the first time in my 25 years of life I have managed to watch every single Best Picture nominated film before the Oscars (barely, I might add. Had Nebraska not shown up in Redbox this week it probably wouldn’t have happened).
So, for the first time ever, I feel like I can make some honest judgement calls and predictions as to how it will go this year. We’ll start with the technical awards, go to acting awards, then finish off with Best Director and Best Picture (yes, I will be skipping some categories that I can’t really speculate on like foreign films and shorts).
Without any further ado, here is The Oscars According to Blake.
Sound Mixing/Sound Editing
I put these two together, a. because I’m a little clueless as to what does and does not make good sound mixing or editing in a film, and b. because I’m thinking most of the technical awards are all going to the same film. While I could imagine Captain Phillips or maybe even The Hobbit taking one of these, I’m 90% sure it will go to the obvious choice.
And the winner is: Gravity
Visual Effects
The problem here is that the Oscars like to clump the awards around one or two films. Rarely, if ever, do you see a lot of different films winning one or two awards a piece (though that was the case last year, which was just a weird year). Again, this one could potentially end up with The Hobbit (Benedict Cumberbatch’s motion captured performance as Smaug is mind-blowing) but the statue seems slated for, again, the obvious pick.
And the winner is: Gravity
Costuming
American Hustle is the definition of a dark horse. No award is in the bag for it (well, except one, which we’ll get to), but it has the potential of stealing one or two away from the obvious choices, including this one. Despite that possibility, I think the clear runaway here shouldn’t have too much to worry about (I’m so glad this film is at least going to win something).
And the winner is: The Great Gatsby
Makeup and Hairstyling
I cannot express how angry I am at this category this year. No nod for Christian Bale’s comb-over in American Hustle, but we’re actually going to nominate a Jackass movie? Oh well, at least it makes the winner obvious. Thank you Jared Leto.
And the winner is: Dallas Buyer’s Club
Production Design
This is maybe the first of this list that isn’t quite so obvious. My pick is based solely on how the awards have played out so far (with a bit of fan-boy bias), but this award is another that American Hustle could run away with, and I think there’s even a chance Her could take this one (which would be nice, seeing as how such an excellent film is going to be really short-changed otherwise).
And the winner is: The Great Gatsby
Cinematography
There’s really no point in debating this one. Biggest shock of the night for me will be if this film doesn’t win.
And the winner is: Gravity
Film Editing
This award has always confused me so maybe someone out there can help. I mean, how does one know how well the editing was unless you see the original cut? The Wolf of Wall Street may have been way too long as a finished product, but what if the original cut was twice as long? So, based on my general feel of film’s pacing, the winner is again what is shaping up to be the star of the evening, but I guess any one of them (including our dark horse again) could steal it away.
And the winner is: Gravity (though don’t quote me on that one)
Music – Original Song
This one comes down to two choices: the more popular song that everyone on Earth is covering and Mormon moms are debating over, or the song that pays homage to the late Mandela. I”m pretty sure it’s the former (Can’t wait to see Idina perform it live).
And the winner is: Let It Go – Frozen
Music – Original Score
I am shocked that the score from 12 Years a Slave wasn’t nominated. Hans Zimmer pulled back his normal foghorn audacity and created a simple, violin-solo-driven score that is par in my opinion to Williams’s work in Schindler’s List. Without that, watch out for Her and Philomena, but I think this one will go to the other film of the night that will be largely ignored.
And the winner is: Saving Mr. Banks
Writing – Adapted Screenplay
My favorite script of the bunch is Philomena, and I want it to win so bad. If the film wins anything it will most likely be this one, but I think Wolf of Wall Street has a better shot of pulling it away from the likely winner.
And the winner is: 12 Years a Slave
Writing – Original Screenplay
Her deserves this award. Period. I think most people out there would agree with me, so hopefully the Academy does as well. But, once again, you’ve got the dark horse of the night in the mix, and Dallas Buyer’s Club might surprise you. But if we’re talking which script was the most creative, innovative, honest, real, and relevant to the world we live in, it’s not a hard choice. Plus this one might be the only award this film gets, which is a crying shame.
And the winner is: Her
Animated Feature Film
Most might say that the mouse has this one in the bag, but don’t forget that the Academy likes to honor veteran artists and give career awards, particularly to those who clearly are stepping away from the business. That’s why I won’t be shocked if Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises ends up winning.
But it probably won’t.
And the winner is: Frozen
Actress in a Supporting Role
Remember how I said that American Hustle probably has one award in the bag? The dark horse of the dark horse for this category is 12 Years’s Lupita Nyong’o (and it wouldn’t shock me) but I think Hollywood’s brightest star is getting another award for her collection. It appears she and David Russell can do no wrong together.
And the winner is: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Actor in a Supporting Role
I remember a while back when Paul Giamatti won every Best Supporting Actor award imaginable for his turn in Cinderella Man. Something very similar is happening this year, and it doesn’t hurt that it’s coming for a politically-charged film and role. I wish the first-timer Barkhad Abdi could be recognized for his wowing performance in Captain Phillips, but it’s not going to happen. This is the one award I would bet money on, though I doubt anyone would challenge me.
And the winner is: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Actress in a Leading Role
This is the biggest question mark for me this year, as I can see reasoning for almost every candidate. While the likely winner is in the same boat as Leto, having already won every other Best Actress award, arguments could be made for Sandra Bullock, who gave the performance of her career in Gravity, or for Amy Adams, who’s part of the dark horse gang and did win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy. Then there’s Judi Dench, who the Academy might honor with a career award for Philomena, seeing as how her acting days are numbered with her failing eyesight. And of course, we have to throw in a nod to the reigning queen of awards, Meryl Streep, for her latest in August: Osage County. What makes this even more difficult to decide is the recent bad press Woody Allen has had, which could take away the award from the likely winner. If the Academy is going to surprise us this year, it’s in this category.
And the winner is: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine???
Actor in a Leading Role
I think Bruce Dern’s nomination was simply Hollywood’s way of forgiving him for killing John Wayne all those years ago (a move which even the actor admits is what destroyed his mainstream career). I honestly think his spot should have gone to Tom Hanks, who gave his best performance since Apollo 13 in Captain Phillips. So with him out that leaves four. This award is the only one that I don’t think American Hustle could steal. Bale was good, but not as good as the other three. Perhaps it is finally Leo’s turn, but I think the Academy still wants to see more from him, and without Scorsese giving him tailored roles. That leaves Chiwetel Ejiofor, who gave a heartbreaking and powerful performance, and the likely choice, who I think the Academy is going to recognize for the incredible 180 he has pulled off in the last two years of his career. Still, watch out for DiCaprio and Ejiofor. I’m still amazed Hanks wasn’t nominated.
And the winner is: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Best Director
Both this one and Best Picture come down to two films. While the Academy rarely splits the two awards between two films, I could potentially see it happening for the second year in a row (it happened with Life of Pi and Argo). Having said that, I don’t think Steve McQueen can win unless he also wins Best Picture. My choice and the likely winner should walk away with this one no matter what. He’s had it coming for a long time.
And the winner is: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Picture
Last year was an interesting year for the Academy Awards in that there was no clear runaway winner. This year is almost the exact opposite. I think any one of these films, with the possible exception of one, would have beat out most of the contenders from last year – they’re all runaway winners. Let’s take a look at each of them. I’ve ordered them from least likely to win to most likely to win.
Nebraska
This is the one that confuses me. It was a good film, but I feel other films this year were better – Saving Mr. Banks, Fruitvale Station, and Frances Ha, just to name three.
Philomena
I adored this film . . . it’s easily one of my favorites of the year (see my list at the end of this post). Unfortunately, it just didn’t quite have the momentum of the others.
Captain Phillips
This is the first example of one that, in any other given year, would have had a better shot, and most certainly would have beat out Argo last year. I’d say it’s lack of recognition is criminal, because it is a damn good movie, but I’d be lying if I said that the others weren’t better films. Doesn’t help that this one caught some bad press for it’s source material.
The Wolf of Wall Street
My first draft of this post had this one in a three-way tie with the next two, but then I remembered that the Academy has it out for Scorsese for reasons I can’t understand; which is why I think DiCaprio needs to work with other directors if he wants the gold statue. Ironically, this satirical romp of debauchery and irreverence is probably the second most culturally important film of the year after 12 Years, being one that people need to see, even if they don’t want to or feel sick to their stomach while viewing it. Excellent film, but not going to win.
Her/Dallas Buyer’s Club
I’m not sure which of these would be more likely to win if the top three weren’t around – that would be interesting to see. While Her boasts the best script of the two, Dallas Buyer’s Club has the better acting chops. Both have a high level of cultural significance, and both are quite powerful in a more subdued way then the two top contenders. These are excellent films, and it’s shame that neither is going to go home with much.
American Hustle
I’ve said it twelve times, I’ll say it again: this is your dark horse this year. While it’s still really unlikely, maybe, just maybe this one could surprise everyone.
And the winner is: Gravity/12 Years a Slave
I’ve gone back and forth a million times on this. I honestly have no idea. The two are such completely different films, yet they both pack a powerful punch that stunned audiences which is probably why they’re at the top of the food chain. Right now I’m leaning towards Gravity, but I fear the Academy may decide to get political as they are wont to do. Saying which of these is a better film is like saying which is better between Mac and Windows . . . all depends on who you ask and what speaks to people in films. Me personally, I believe Gravity is the better film, but I can see the argument for 12 Years. Ninety percent of the reason I’ll be tuning in on Sunday is because this one positively baffles me.
So there you have it – my Oscar predictions. Here’s a few other lists made up of the Best Picture Nominees.
My Judgement of Best to Worst:
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Her/Philomena (tie)
Dallas Buyer’s Club
The Wolf of Wall Street/Captain Phillips (tie)
Nebraska
My Most Favorite to Least Favorite (the crowd-pleasers):
Gravity
Philomena
Her
American Hustle
Captain Phillips/The Wolf of Wall Street/Dallas Buyer’s Club (mood decision)
12 Years a Slave (great film but not one I can watch every day)
Nebraska (as you can tell, I’m not to thrilled about this one, though it was good)
My Thoughts on What You Should/Need to See, Most Important to Least
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street/Her (both biting criticisms of our current society, but make sure you can handle the graphic content of Wolf)
Philomena (Powerful in it’s simplicity)
Captain Phillips (Unfortunately most fans of this one missed its indictment of American imperialism)
Dallas Buyer’s Club
Gravity (inspirational and moving, no doubt, but not as powerful a message as the others)
American Hustle (it’s a fun look at corruption, but it doesn’t really say a whole lot about it)
Nebraska (Why was this nominated again?)
– Blake L.
[Awkward Pause] 